Archive for October, 2010

October 31, 2010 2


By in Recreation
[gallery orderby="title"]
October 25, 2010 0

United States Oil (USO), Week 43 Prediction

By in Artificial Nerual Networks

Here is the Artificial Neural Network’s prediction for United States Oil (USO), week 43:

Backtest USO week 42:

Backtest USO week 41:

Backtest USO week 40:

October 25, 2010 0

Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE), Week 43 Prediction

By in Artificial Nerual Networks

Here is the Artificial Neural Network’s prediction for Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE), week 43:

Backtest FXE week 42:

Backtest FXE week 41:

Backtest FXE week 40:

October 25, 2010 0

Graphs: Executive Edition

By in Artificial Nerual Networks

I wrote the de-scaling logic and x-axis labeling for the prediction/backtesting graphs. Here’s my first draft, complete with a format readable by normal human beings:

There are a couple of things I have to fix.

First, see that spike near the “Tuesday” mark? That spike actually happened at Tuesday’s opening. The discrepancy is because my tick data is missing some ticks. This is also the reason why the blue “Observed” line is longer than the “Predicted” line. That means that I have to write a routine that preps the tick data before feeding into the ANN.

The good news is that the prediction actually “nailed” Tuesday morning’s spike–the ANN “knew” a surge was coming before the currency trust basically moved sideways for the rest of the week.

October 23, 2010 0

Pumpkin Carving!

By in Recreation
[caption id="attachment_161" align="aligncenter" width="730" caption="Pumpkin Carving at the Rileys"][/caption]
October 23, 2010 0

Week 42 Predictions

By in Artificial Nerual Networks

Here are this week’s predicted vs. actual  graphs. I transposed my prediction graphs with this week’s Yahoo! weekly graph. I did this as I’m now pushing more toward a business, “USA Today” look and less toward  “hard line” engineering output. I want to provide meaningful results for investors that they can easily use.

Overall my predictions are pretty good. I know from other experiments this week that the proper selection of inputs is critical to the prediction’s outcome. While I haven’t looked yet at two more securities I analyzed, I am nearly certain that they will “bomb.” My backtesting/numerical analysis showed that the neurals didn’t “get” the other two securities I analyzed with the inputs I supplied. In other words, if the neurals are going to be wrong, I can tell you ahead of time with fair certainty. Here are the two I knew would be right. I bet with more experimentation I will make them even better (hint: trend reversal signals):

October 20, 2010 0

PLUG Advanced Topics: Allison Randal

By in Linux

Allison Randal gave a presentation entitled, “Ubuntu Release Engineering” last night in Portland. During her presentation Allison gave some insights into how she coordinates the efforts of her developers and how the release cycle helps make sure the project members’ efforts are coordinated.

Allison displayed two graphs in particular that piqued my interest. The first was a sloping bar graph depicting the completed tasks in green and the incomplete tasks in red. The green area at the top increased in area while the red area decreased as time progressed. The graph was visual way of representing project progress over time. It also clearly showed how much still needed to be done. Instantly. Very nice.
The second graph showed the spacial relationship between the various projects in Ubuntu’s world. The graph was created automatically through scripts that perform natural language parsing the work orders. From that information an updated spatial view of the relationships between the projects is created.
You can tell that Allison cares about her people and the projects she oversees. She’s really conscious to make sure she has her finger on the pulse of the OSS community.

October 19, 2010 2

Images From The Zip Lines

By in Recreation

Here are a few images from our zip line at “Tree to Tree” the other weekend. I hope to add more detail soon…

[caption id="attachment_144" align="aligncenter" width="800" caption="The whole group poses at the threshold of adventure!"]The whole group at the starting point[/caption] [caption id="attachment_145" align="aligncenter" width="800" caption="Cindy shows her spirit as she zips the cable line at full speed"]Wee![/caption] [caption id="attachment_146" align="aligncenter" width="800" caption="John and I pass the time as we prep for the next obstical"]John and I passing time[/caption] [caption id="attachment_147" align="aligncenter" width="800" caption="John zips down the last line of the \"Blue Run\""][/caption] [caption id="attachment_148" align="aligncenter" width="800" caption="Johny and I play zip lines after our run. Zzzzzzzzzz!"]Zzzzzzz![/caption]
October 19, 2010 0

Why I Do It

By in Information Technology

The developers are huddled in a semi-circle talking excitedly about the potential new progress of their projects.

The idea that they can now track their projects–the wonder of their repositories accessed through the web-based project site–feels electric.

So it is when I showed my clients Redmine and what it meant to their productivity.

Getting people excited, providing leadership and helping them move forward is why I love IT so much.

It’s only the beginning–they’ll benefit from my years of experience–when we’re finished my client will have a every efficient and effective developer team that simply meets the customer’s needs.