Archive for December, 2010

December 29, 2010 2

NYC: The Sequel

By in Recreation

I thought this trip would be less work. I was wrong. Here’s a few snapshots that I was able to get in yesterday…


December 19, 2010 0

Portolio Analysis

By in Investment

Here are the results from week 49 & 50:

Portfolio Overview

Number of Winning Trades: 14

Number of Losing Trades: 0

The (geom.) Avg. Gain: 2.49%

The (geom.) Average Loss: 0%

Sum Of Gains: $8,383.25

Sum Of Losses: $0.00

Cummulative Gain (geom.): 141.14

Cummulative Loss (geom.) 100.00

Portfolio Detail

DRYS, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-06_09:30:00 4780 5.88 28106.4
Close: 2010-12-10_16:00:00 4780 6.33 30257.4

Comments:

Slight overall uptrend. Prediction indicates the security having high volitility early in the week with sideways movement mid-week. An uptrend into the weekend.

Confidence in this prediction is low: security prediction exhibits high error rates during training.

Aggressive investment: buy DRYS with extreme caution

F, direction: short

Open: 2010-12-06_09:30:00 1488 16.80 24998.4
Close: 2010-12-06_14:30:00 1488 16.69 24834.72

Comments:

Overall uptrend. Will dip Monday before turning to the long side for the
rest of the week. Wednesday is a critical point, re-run neurals at the
close Tuesday to confirm trend.

Aggressive investment: short Ford at the open Monday until mid-afternoon
then turn long.

F, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-06_14:30:00 1504 16.69 25101.76
Close: 2010-12-10_16:00:00 1504 16.73 25161.92

Comments:

Overall uptrend. Will dip Monday before turning to the long side for the
rest of the week. Wednesday is a critical point, re-run neurals at the
close Tuesday to confirm trend.

Aggressive investment: short Ford at the open Monday until mid-afternoon
then turn long.

XLF, direction: short

Open: 2010-12-06_09:30:00 1646 15.53 25562.38
Close: 2010-12-19_09:32:00 1646 15.10 24854.6

Comments:

Moderately strong and steady uptrend. Confidence in this prediction is high: training periods indicate consistent technical analysis with low training error rates.

Aggresive investment: Short Monday in volitatility then turn long until mid-Thursday afternoon or, more likely, early Friday.

MOT, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-06_09:30:00 3033 8.24 24991.92
Close: 2010-12-10_16:00:00 3033 8.64 26205.12

Comments:

Poor prediction performance from the neurals on this security; will
probably move slightly higher but not conclusive.

Aggresive investment: Buy Motorola but watch it very carefully.

XLF, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-06_12:00:00 1646 15.10 24854.6
Close: 2010-12-09_14:30:00 1646 15.54 25578.84

Comments:

Moderately strong and steady uptrend. Confidence in this prediction is high: training periods indicate consistent technical analysis with low training error rates.

Aggresive investment: Short Monday in volitatility then turn long until mid-Thursday afternoon or, more likely, early Friday.

BAC, direction: short

Open: 2010-12-10_09:30:00 1640 12.80 20992
Close: 2010-12-10_15:58:00 1640 12.54 20565.6

Comments:

Short at the open until just before the close on Monday. Turn long until
exiting at 11:00 a.m. Friday

GE, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-13_10:30:00 1191 17.63 20997.33
Close: 2010-12-17_16:00:00 1191 17.70 21080.7

Comments:

Enter long position at 10:30 a.m. Monday. Exit position at the close Friday.

MOT, direction: short

Open: 2010-12-13_09:30:00 2431 8.64 21003.84
Close: 2010-12-16_10:00:00 2431 8.57 20833.67

Comments:

Short until Thursday 10:00 a.m. Turn long until Friday 11:00 a.m.

XLF, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-13_16:00:00 2488 8.44 20998.72
Close: 2010-12-17_13:00:00 2488 8.88 22093.44

Comments:

Enter Long Monday 4:00 p.m. until Friday at 1:00 p.m.

THC, direction: short

Open: 2010-12-13_09:30:00 3158 6.65 21000.7
Close: 2010-12-14_11:00:00 3158 6.54 20653.32

Comments:

THC, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-13_11:00:00 3158 6.54 20653.32
Close: 2010-12-17_16:00:00 3158 6.73 21253.34

Comments:

BAC, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-13_15:58:00 1640 12.54 20565.6
Close: 2010-12-17_11:00:00 1640 12.59 20647.6

Comments:

Short at the open until just before the close on Monday. Turn long until
exiting at 11:00 a.m. Friday

MOT, direction: long

Open: 2010-12-16_10:00:00 2431 8.57 20833.67
Close: 2010-12-17_11:00:00 2431 8.80 21392.8

Comments:

Short until Thursday 10:00 a.m. Turn long until Friday 11:00 a.m.


December 14, 2010 0

A Tribute To NASA

By in Recreation

Occasionally I will watch “Two For Two,” NASA’s documentary about the Mars space rovers. It’s exciting to watch the ground control team’s range of emotions from the rovers’ liftoff to landing. The entire process and the work that went behind the Mars rovers are nothing short of a stunning achievement.

I’d like to say, “way to go” to the men and women at NASA.

December 8, 2010 0

Neural Screencast

By in Artificial Nerual Networks, Information Technology

I posted my week’s predictions (pulled an “all-nighter” actually). Here’s a video of what the prediction process looks like:

 

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    video="http://cooper.stevenson.name/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/neural_prediction.flv"
    width="320"
    height="240"
    clickurl="http://cooper.stevenson.name/"
    player="2"
    autoplay="false"
    loop="false"
    autorewind="true"
    splashimage="http://yourwebsite.com/wp-content/plugins/hana-flv-player/splash.jpg"
/]